Marknaderna stiger när Microsoft och NZ:s pensionsfond dyker ner i Bitcoin

Bitcoin fick ett uppsving efter nyheten att Microsoft och en pensionsfond använder nätverket, men turbulens väntas under helgen.

  • Bitcoin har återhämtat sig efter gårdagens kraftiga förluster.
  • Men marknaderna är på väg mot en turbulent period då en kort pressning väntas.
  • Den bredare amerikanska ekonomin återhämtar sig i snabbare takt än vad som förutspåtts.

Det fanns tecken på liv på marknaderna i morse efter gårdagens ihållande förluster. De globala kryptomarknaderna nådde en lägsta nivå på 1,58 biljoner dollar igår vid 16.00 UTC – den lägsta siffran på nästan en månad.

BTC så lågt som till 50 856 dollar

Men motståndet höll sig på den linjen och marknaderna verkar vara i en återhämtningsfas. Marknadskapitalet kryper nu uppåt och ligger på 1,66 biljoner dollar.

Bitcoin har i skrivande stund återigen stigit med 1,5 %. Under de senaste 24 timmarna sjönk BTC så lågt som till 50 856 dollar, enligt CoinMarketCap, men sitter för närvarande i mitten av 53 000 dollar.

Marknaderna verkar njuta av två nyheter. Den första var att Microsoft hade lagt ut sitt decentraliserade identifieringsnätverk på Bitcoins huvudnät. Projektet, som inleddes för fyra år sedan, är utformat för att hjälpa organisationer och individer att identifieras på nätet utan att behöva förlita sig på en tredje part.

Den andra nyheten var att den nyzeeländska pensionsfonden KiwiSaver hade investerat 5 % av sin fond på 350 miljoner dollar i bitcoin.

„Vår KiwiSaver är till största delen uppbyggd genom traditionella tillgångsklasser, dina obligationer och aktier …, men det kommer att finnas tillfällen då det inte alltid kommer att vara en enkel segling. Du kanske fortfarande har en positiv syn på dessa tillgångsklasser, men andra möjligheter dyker upp“, säger James Grigor, investeringschef för fonden.

Men återhämtningen kan strypas av vad som kommer att bli ett rekordstort antal Bitcoin-optionsavtal som löper ut i dag.

Kontrakt till ett värde av omkring 6 miljarder dollar förväntas löpa ut, vilket marknadsanalytiker förväntar sig att leda till en kort press. Även om det sannolikt kommer att driva upp priserna när kortspelare tvingas köpa BTC för att täcka sina förluster, är det osannolikt att det kommer att skapa en ihållande uppgång.

Då tillgångar på andra håll drar investeringar bort från BTC

Som Market Watch påpekade igår är marknaderna på väg in i en skummande period då tillgångar på andra håll drar investeringar bort från BTC. Som ByBt rapporterade likviderades mer än 2 miljarder dollar på bitcointerminmarknaderna, vilket tyder på att marknaderna blir svårare att navigera.

Denna oro kändes också på Wall Street. Dow, S&P 500 och Nasdaq slutade gårdagens session något högre, men marknaderna blir mer ojämna när cyklisk handel skapar ett polariserande antal vinnare och förlorare.

Teknikaktier kämpar för att hålla fast vid vinster som gjorts tidigare under kvartalet, medan värdeaktier blir början av 2021 års bästa presterande aktier.

„Vi har sett att värdet har överträffat tillväxten“, sade Lori Calvasina, chef för aktiestrategi på RBC Capital Markets, i en nyligen publicerad not.

„Med andra ord tenderar tillväxtaktier att prestera bättre när tillväxten är knapp, men värdeaktier tenderar att prestera bättre när den är riklig. De goda nyheterna för värdehandeln är att nuvarande konsensusprognoser förväntar sig att BNP kommer att ligga över trenden fram till slutet av 2022. Det man måste övervaka är om detta förändras.“

Men vissa ekonomer har svårt att anpassa sig till förändringstakten. „Det är svårt att hålla jämna steg med den här ekonomin“, sade ekonomer från Bank of America på torsdagen. Företaget höjer sin prognos för BNP-tillväxten till 7,0 %, jämfört med Federal Reserves prognos på 6,5 %.

Även om det är bra för ekonomin och bra för konsumenterna kan Bitcoins iögonfallande uppgång i år stanna upp. Men det har inte hindrat vissa från att fördubbla sina optimistiska utsikter.

Enligt Deribit-börsen är den vanligaste öppna positionen på börsen 80 000 dollar call, vilket innebär att vissa förväntar sig en ny Bitcoin-boom i april.

Bitcoin (BTC) bounces back from decline below $ 45,000

Bitcoin’s price has created a bullish recovery Japanese candlestick in the weekly data.

Weekly indicators are bullish but daily signals are bearish.

BTC broke a short-term downward wedge pattern

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has declined significantly over the past week. That said, he did manage to break past a short-term bullish reversal pattern.

Anon System is expected to continue rising towards the resistance areas mentioned in this article.

Bitcoin weekly bullish close

During the week of February 22-28, Bitcoin’s price fell from a high of $ 57,508 to a low of $ 43,000, creating a bearish Japanese overlap candlestick in the process .

The RSI first created a bearish divergence before the price fell, but then canceled it with a concealed bullish divergence . This is a strong sign of a continuation of the uptrend.

Additionally, the MACD has yet to create a lower momentum bar (although it is close to one this week) and the Stochastic Oscillator has yet to form a bearish cross.

Since 2015, there have been five instances of Japanese bearish recovery candlesticks following a significant upward movement.

In two cases, new highs occurred immediately after (green arrows). Two other cases led to slight rebounds and lower lows (in yellow) while one case was followed by a rebound, but marked the start of a two-year correction (in red).

Nonetheless, these five cases led to a rebound in the week that followed. So it is likely that this week we will also see some form of upward movement.

Current movement

The daily chart shows that BTC is currently trading above the minor support area at $ 44,800. The course validated this area for the second time and created a lower wick.

However, technical indicators are bearish. This is evidenced by the passage into negative territory of the histogram of the MACD and the bearish cross of the Stochastic Oscillator.

The two hour chart is a bit more bullish. It reveals a passage above a descending wedge and very significant bullish divergence in the RSI like the MACD.

If the price of BTC continues to rise, the closest resistance would be between $ 50,670 and $ 52,480. This range corresponds to the 0.5 and 0.618 fibonacci retracement levels measured from the entire bearish movement.

This would also agree with the possibility of a rebound, as highlighted in the weekly chart .

A passage of the area between $ 50,670 and $ 52,480 and its validation as support would confirm that the trend is upward.

Ethereum’s Uniswap to become the world’s largest DEX

PancakeSwap overtakes Ethereum’s Uniswap to become the world’s largest DEX by volume

PancakeSwap overtakes Ethereum’s Uniswap to become world’s largest DEX by volume

The „Binance Smart Chain“ project is challenging the top DEXs with lower fees and an easy-to-use interface.
The day a pancake overtook a unicorn

PancakeSwap (CAKE) is now the largest decentralised exchange in the world by daily trading volume, data from market app CoinGecko shows. The project launched on Binance Smart Chain last year, but few paid attention to it at the time.

Yesterday, over $1.7 billion was traded on PancakeSwap. In contrast, Uniswap saw over $1.6 billion change hands. The latter is BinBot based on Ethereum and is the network’s biggest gas guzzler – yesterday alone it generated $16 million in fees for miners, according to ETH Gas Station.

There are 210 „verified“ cryptocurrencies listed on the project in over 799 different trading pairs. Of these, WBNB/BUSD is the most traded with over $454 million in volume – also CAKE, BAKE, BURGER, and other funny sounding tokens also see large trading volumes.

On PancakeSwap, users can wager their CAKE and collect „SYRUP“, the platform’s governance token, in exchange for providing liquidity across crypto pairs. This enables the creation of a peer-to-peer exchange where all trades are executed through an „automated market maker“ design.

Other products on the platform include non-fungible tokens (NFTs), IFOs and a lottery game. These allow users to spend CAKE to either collect art, participate in the launch of new projects or win the lottery.

The rise of BSC

Pancakeswap is based on the Binance Smart Chain (BSC), one of the two blockchains built and maintained by crypto exchange Binance. It enables smart contract integrations and similar other services possible on Ethereum (Go to Buy Ethereum Guide) and was launched in September 2020.

Two of the biggest advantages of using BSC are the network’s low fees and fast transactions (a few cents or 300 transactions per second).

This allows newer blockchain users to invest a small amount of money, such as US$100, and participate in yield farms, lending, trading and other on-chain operations without losing a lot of money in „fees“ to miners on expensive networks.

Token and usage of other BSC projects also rose in recent days. Venus and Burgerswap lead the gains in the BSC space. The sector has grown to over $49 billion and accounts for 3% of the total crypto space.

Calin Culianu and Bitcoin Cash as an alternative to Lightning Network

Surely among the most prolific developers of Bitcoin Cash (BCH), we can mention Calin Culianu, whose contribution has allowed the creation and improvement of several products related to this blockchain.

Calin began his journey as a developer with the C++ language, which would lead him over the course of his 21 years in the business to also create his own consulting company and software house, working with clients such as Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, where he built software from scratch to capture data in the field of neuroscience.

Calin has also published a successful app with his software house, C3 Software, in the field Bitcoin Code of music, so we also see his passion for music applied to computing.

We are in the early days of Bitcoin, when Satoshi Nakamoto was still active on the forum. It was then 2012 when Calin approached this crypto and the Bitcoin Talk forum, where people were already starting to talk about the future and the scalability of the project.

In fact, many at the time asked Nakamoto how to increase the scalability of this blockchain, but he responded by saying that the technology would progress to such an extent that the problem of space and the heaviness of the blocks would be enough to hold it.

And so alternatives began to appear, including the Lightning Network, one of the second layers in which to transfer crypto and achieve greater scalability. However, the project did not appeal to many and Culianu thought it would be better to increase the size of the blocks.

So it was that in July 2017 he and Amaury Sechet contributed to the then Bitcoin Cash.

Calin Culianu and the Bitcoin Cash projects.
And it is under the Bitcoin Cash blockchain that we find his biggest projects and contributions, such as the Electron Cash wallet, the wallet that almost everyone uses within the ecosystem.

Calin created the Fulcrum server, a fast and agile SPV server for BCH and BTC, and also contributed to BIP38 in its brute38 version.

His proliferation of contributions also led him to participate in the creation of the famous Simple Ledger Protocol (SLP), which are tokens built on the Bitcoin Cash blockchain that can be made by anyone due to their ease of use.

He also participated in the Bitcoin Cash Node (BCHN) project, which aims to improve and enhance this blockchain and make payments digital and fast for everyone, as was the original intention of Bitcoin.

SkyBridge lanserar officiellt sin Bitcoin-fond med 310 miljoner dollarSkyBright

New York-baserade globala värdepappersföretaget SkyBridge Capital meddelade idag att det hade startat sin Bitcoin Loophole fond med 310 miljoner dollar i förvaltningstillgångar (AUM).

Hedgefondförvaltaren grundad av den tidigare kommunikationsdirektören i Vita huset, Anthony Scaramucci, är för närvarande det nyaste fondförvaltningsbolaget som erbjuder institutionella investerare exponering för bitcoin via en Bitcoin-fond.

SkyBridge Bitcoin Fund sås ut med 310 miljoner dollar i tillgångar som enligt uppgift har hämtats från företagets flaggskeppsfond på 3 miljarder dollar

I en kommentar till den senaste utvecklingen sa SkyBridge-grundare och verkställande partner Anthony Scaramucci till Reuters: ”Tänk dig varje modellportfölj där guld har blivit en accepterad tillgångsklass, varje modellportfölj har 1% exponering för bitcoin och du kan se storleken på var bitcoin kan vara.“

SkyBridge’s omfamning av bitcoin kom från den senaste tidens bitcoinprisutveckling tillsammans med andra kryptotillgångar. Den översta kryptovalutan har haft en ökande uppåtgående trend och hade till och med satt en ny heltidshöjd för sig själv när den passerade tröskelvärdena på 34 000 dollar på söndagen.

Bortsett från den senaste prisökningen går SkyBridge också in för vinsten

Data från Hedge Fund Research (HFR) – ett branschspårningsföretag, avslöjar att enbart i november gjorde kryptovalutafokuserade fonder 52% vinst, vilket är ungefär% 156 år 2020.

Enligt HFR-president Kenneth Heinz har vinster som gjorts på hedgefonder lockat investerarnas uppmärksamhet, säger han: „Efter att ha lagt starka vinster genom det tumultiga 2020, ökar investerare aktivt exponeringen för hedgefonder, inklusive kryptovalutastrategier.“

SkyBridge hoppas kunna ta en del av marknaden utanför Grayscales Bitcoin Trust, som för närvarande innehar 17,5 miljarder dollar i tillgångar under förvaltning.

Coinfomania citerade nyligen JP Morgan-analytiker som hävdade att inflöde till gråskala är en potentiell indikation på hur länge Bitcoin-rally kommer att fortsätta. Grayscale tog enligt uppgift i genomsnitt 1 miljard dollar i tillgångar varje månad 2020. Vid ett tillfälle förvärvade Grayscale 1 2319 BTC (290 miljoner dollar) på en dag.

El Servicio de Monetización de Contenidos de Nueva Generación de Kim Dotcom K.IM anuncia la integración de Bitcoin Cash

30 de diciembre de 2020, Auckland, Nueva Zelanda: Dotcom, cuyo sitio web Megaupload fue una vez el 13º sitio más popular de Internet y responsable del 4% de todo el tráfico de Internet, dijo que K.IM convierte „los archivos digitales en tiendas de archivos“. Los usuarios pueden utilizar nuestro servicio para empaquetar un archivo que quieran vender en un contenedor de archivos cifrado y luego pueden colocarlo en cualquier lugar de Internet. Los clientes que quieran acceder al contenido dentro del contenedor encriptado pueden hacer un pago usando criptocracia como Bitcoin Cash“.

Cuando se le preguntó por qué estaba entusiasmado con K.IM y Bitcoin Cash en particular, Dotcom dijo que mientras Bitcoin (BTC) ha sido una gran herramienta para el almacenamiento de activos, Bitcoin Cash es „genial para los pagos“ por servicios como K.IM y ofrece nuevas oportunidades financieras para consumidores, vendedores e inversores. Kim dijo lo siguiente sobre el mercado de la criptografía:

„Mi opinión es que el uso del cripto está en aumento y el BCH está en una buena posición para acumular cuota de mercado. Para mí es simple: Cuantos más usuarios tengas, más valor tendrás“.

Añadiendo:

„Los ganadores de la carrera de criptografía serán decididos por los vendedores y usuarios. Enfócate en la cuestión fundamental: ¿Qué quieren los vendedores y los usuarios? Tarifas bajas, transacciones rápidas, alta seguridad y facilidad de uso.“

Continuó diciendo que Bitcoin System Cash estaba actualmente „infravalorado“ y que el „potencial de beneficio para los que perdieron el tren BTC“ es enorme. El fundador de Bitcoin.com y amigo de Dotcom, Roger Ver, dijo que Dotcom „siempre ha estado por delante del resto del mercado y que la gente debería prestar atención a sus predicciones“. Continuó diciendo:

„Cuando se observa el interés en la BTC en estos días, mucho de ello viene en tratar de perseguir sus ganancias históricas de inversión. Mientras el precio siga subiendo, habrá mucho interés. ¿Pero qué pasa cuando la gente quiere empezar a usarlo para pagar por las cosas? Descubrirán las limitaciones de Bitcoin y buscarán un activo que pueda ser tanto una inversión como un verdadero sistema de pago peer-to-peer como Bitcoin estaba originalmente destinado a ser. Eso es lo que es Bitcoin Cash.

Hablando más sobre Bitcoin Cash, Ver dijo lo siguiente:

„Tiene todas las grandes cualidades que ayudaron a BTC a convertirse en un almacén de valor, pero no está limitado artificialmente por las tarifas. Empresarios como Kim Dotcom pueden usarlo para construir su negocio sin depender de las partes centrales para proporcionar capas de pago. No es sorprendente que sea tan optimista sobre Bitcoin Cash“.

Ver dijo que K.IM es uno de los productos más emocionantes que ha visto en años y tiene el potencial de conseguir que millones de personas usen criptodivisas como Bitcoin Cash que pueden manejar el volumen masivo que los negocios de Dotcom han creado en el pasado.

K.IM se encuentra actualmente en desarrollo con actualizaciones que llegarán pronto. Se espera que la plataforma se lance en el cuarto trimestre de 2021. Para obtener más información, visite el sitio web de K.IM hoy.

Acerca de K.IM

Proporcionando servicios y tecnologías avanzadas para gestionar, proteger y vender contenidos digitales, K.IM revolucionará la monetización de los contenidos digitales y creará un mercado justo para los creadores de contenidos y los consumidores.

Sinovate (SIN) – The decentralized cloud storage service to generate passive revenue

Discover Sinovate (SIN), an open source project offering a decentralized cloud storage service powered by blockchain architecture. Operating in both Proof of Work and Proof of Stake, the Sinovate network is supported by many innovative features that ensure its sustainability.

Sinovate – Rethinking cloud storage with blockchain

The Sinovate project (SIN) was born in September 2018 with a very specific objective, to decentralize cloud storage with the blockchain . Completely open source, Sinovate innovates by implementing unique applications that help it get closer to its goal.

First, the Incorruptible Data Storage (or IDS), is a private network and decentralized Cloud mechanism imagined by Sinovate. This is intended for sending , storing and verifying encrypted data files .

This application integrated into the Sinovate network contains many applications, such as storing files for later retrieval, sending files anonymously through the network, private messaging between users with the SIN Messenger application.

To put it simply, in the case of file storage with IDS, data is stored and encrypted using the public key of its owner. To access and handle the data, the transaction identifier and proof of authenticity (here the private key) are required.

In order to avoid blockchain saturation, the user must pay transaction fees in SIN coins – Sinovate’s native cryptocurrency – to store their data. The amount paid depends on the size of the data and its level of encryption. In addition, all SIN coins used in transaction fees are burned and withdrawn from circulation .

To maintain this infrastructure, Sinovate developers have developed unique network solutions. Let’s see this in more detail.

A hybrid network combining Proof of Work and Proof of Stake

The Sinovate blockchain works in a rather peculiar way. Unlike most blockchains, Sinovate does not use one, but two algorithms for its consensus.

First layer, the Proof of Work (PoW). Like Bitcoin (BTC), Sinovate uses proof of work to keep its network running smoothly. With a specific hashing algorithm called X25X , Sinovate wants to be more accessible to minors by graphics cards. This is intended to be resistant to machines specialized in mining, the ASICS.

By making mining more accessible, Sinovate reduces the risk of attacks by 51% and improves network decentralization. Together, the nodes operating in Proof of Work create a new block every 2 minutes, each having a transaction capacity of 16MB.

In parallel, Sinovate also uses Proof of Stake (PoS), like any other blockchain operating with masternodes. In the same way as the nodes in Proof of Work, the nodes using this mechanism participate in the proper functioning of the network, while distributing rewards to their holders.

This hybrid system allows Sinovate to obtain an over-secure network, while giving the network capacities of more than 500 transactions per second . This 2nd layer of nodes for the network also plays other roles, described in the next part.

Sinovate innovations, Infinity Nodes and Proof of Burn (PoB)

To overcome the phenomenon of hyperinflation that masternode oriented cryptocurrencies face, Sinovate has developed what it calls Infinity Nodes .

Infinity Nodes are similar to traditional masternodes implemented by other projects, but were designed differently for Sinovate. Indeed, the collateral of an Infinity Nodes of Sinovate cannot be recovered, it being burned as soon as the node is activated. This mechanism is called Proof of Burn (PoB).

Infinity Nodes therefore use the PoB mechanism to ensure that all SINs used for the activation of a node are immutable burned and recorded as unusable . This feature greatly enhances network security by deterring those who might attempt to conduct malicious activity on the network.

In addition, each operator of a node undertakes to support the Sinovate network for a period of 12 months. After this period, the node will need to be reactivated again, committing more SIN wedges to burn.

Justin Sun: “Tron will honor TRON family tokens blocked on OKEx”

The Tron Foundation will permanently honor “TRON Family” tokens blocked on OKEx.

The popular trading platform still does not allow users to withdraw cryptos

The blocking of withdrawals follows the arrest of one of the exchange’s founders earlier this month.

The Trust Project is an international consortium of news organizations based on transparency standards.

The Tron Foundation and the founder of the network himself, Justin Sun, have announced that they will permanently honor all Tron-related cryptocurrencies blocked on the OKEx trading platform. The move follows 15 days of blocked withdrawals of any digital asset from the exchange.

The Tron Foundation says that regardless of how the situation develops, it will continue to honor the “TRON Family” tokens (TRX, BTT, JST and SUN) at a ratio of 1: 1. The announcement follows on from previous efforts to help Tron users claim their holdings on the platform.

1: 1 permanent assistance

As BeInCrypto previously reported, the popular OKEx cryptocurrency exchange is in hot water with regulators. Withdrawals from the platform have been suspended since October 16 .

The exchange made the decision to block access to user funds following the arrest of one of its founders. The arrest is said to be linked to a Chinese regulatory crackdown on money laundering. Although the platform assures users that funds are safe, investors remain obligated to keep their holdings with OKEx.

In response to the blocking of withdrawals, the Tron Foundation announced some sort of manual withdrawal option on October 21. Tron supporters with trapped assets were able to internally transfer their holdings to a user account affiliated with Tron, and the Tron Foundation would send tokens to an address chosen by the holders.

The organization has since expanded its previous engagement. In a Medium article published today, he stated that he would permanently honor all “TRON Family” tokens at a rate of 1: 1.

This incident has grown from a decision of a single trading platform to turmoil across the industry and may even affect the future direction of the industry.

Tokens will be honored with or without the support of OKEx

The initial internal Tron incumbent care system relied on OKEx’s own support. Today’s announcement promised continued support regardless of the outcome of the ongoing OKEx saga.

The message indicates that the Tron Foundation alone made the decision to honor the assets held on OKEx. He added that he would continue to do so without „recognition or support“ from the exchange. In this respect, it differs from the previous announcement.

Sun wrote that numerous appeals for help from holders prompted the decision. He added:

„The team and I are extremely upset to see how the situation has developed so far.“

While the initial block of withdrawals saw cryptocurrency prices plummet, the sale was brief. The price of bitcoin has actually risen by over 25% during this month.

Such price performance is testament to the growing maturity of the industry. It seems like the days when the drama of a major trade could spark a lasting sale are well and truly behind us.

Bitcoin: Safe haven or risk/opportunity?

Do we have a safe haven at Bitcoin or are we an opportunistic asset?

After more than 7 months of aligning with traditional markets, many analysts still don’t see the correlation. However, it only took a couple of weeks to declare Bitcoin officially uncoupled from the stock. Anthony Pompliano, an influencer and co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, recently stated that „the decoupling of Bitcoin and the stock shows that BTC is the ‚ultimate safe haven. In other words, according to him, Bitcoin has a zero correlation with the stocks once again and critics were wrong to doubt its „safe harbor“ status.

The stock markets have been showing signs of weakness lately due to the blocking of stimulus in Congress, mixed economic reports and uncertainty surrounding the elections. While this is happening, Bitcoin experienced a spike due to the news of PayPal joining the crypto world. For years, it was said that a global economic crisis would increase Bitcoin’s price dramatically. In this scenario, the stock market and the dollar would lose value. But Bitcoin would be the „safe haven“ in times of panic. The coronavirus crash came and that’s not what happened. In fact, the opposite happened.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has shown that it reacts positively to injections of liquidity.

And, for a long time, its behavior seems to be imitating the behavior of a Big Tech. What are the „safe havens“? Treasury bonds, the dollar and gold, mainly. These „safe“ assets are especially known for their stability and resilience. In a crisis, investors take refuge in these assets to escape the collapse of prices in the stock markets. A fixed income investment is considered safer than an equity investment. That is, bonds are usually safer than stocks. However, stocks, despite being riskier investments, offer (potentially) higher returns. In other words, a safe haven is a boring, ultra-conservative investment.

Due to concerns about the coronavirus, the markets panicked in March and April. Due to doubts and uncertainty, many investors decided to sell their shares, causing a crash. At that time, the dollar strengthened and purchases of Treasury bonds skyrocketed. These assets do not offer great returns, but they do offer stability. And, in moments of panic, the risk is too high and investors usually choose the stability of a boring asset.

The US Federal Reserve must provide liquidity to encourage investment.

This means that it must weaken the dollar on the one hand, and it must buy Treasury bonds on the other, to reduce their profitability. In this way, increase the demand for the riskiest financial assets. This was the medicine implemented by the authorities during this crisis and it worked. The markets have indeed recovered quite a bit from the March crash.

In January and February of this year, people like Anthony Pompliano and reporter Max Keiser told us about Bitcoin being a „safe haven“ in times of coronavirus. We must remember that this is the first global economic crisis for Bitcoin. However, during this crisis, Bitcoin has behaved like a Big Tech. During the panic, it collapses. After the stimuli, it recovers.

It’s clear to many that Bitcoin isn’t a safe haven because of the volatility. Their track record tells us that Bitcoin can lose more than 80% of its value in a relatively short time. In 2017, for example, Bitcoin reached almost $20,000 per unit, and then a year later, Bitcoin reached a low of about $3,000 per unit. In addition, with Bitcoin, we have many regulatory and technological uncertainties. In fact, to be frank, it’s crazy to say it’s a safe haven. Others might say it’s irresponsible to represent an asset that’s as risky as it is safe.

Let’s say, by a quirk of fate, we find the president of country X at an embassy party in country Y. The subject asks us for advice and asks us if he should put all the Social Security funds into Bitcoin because with the Social Security money he cannot take risks. He should only invest in safe assets. But after talking to us, he’s seriously considering selling U.S. Treasury bonds to put everything into Bitcoin. After all, according to us, Bitcoin is a „safe haven

3 trilioni di dollari Bitcoin Market Cap Prediction – Ecco perché ARK Invest Crypto Analyst ritiene che BTC abbia un enorme vantaggio

  • ARK Invest prevede che la capitalizzazione di mercato della Bitcoin potrebbe raggiungere i 3.000 miliardi di dollari entro la fine del 2025
  • Il suo documento dimostra che la Bitcoin non è correlata ad altre attività, come l’oro e l’S&P 500 nel lungo periodo
  • La liquidità relativamente piccola e la mancanza di grandi depositari rimangono gli ostacoli più importanti che ostacolano l’adozione istituzionale di Bitcoin
  • I mercati emergenti sembrano essere un’altra grande opportunità per Bitcoin

Yassine Elmandjra, analista di cripto asset presso ARK Invest, una società di investimento con sede a New York con 28 miliardi di dollari di asset in gestione, ha recentemente rilasciato una dichiarazione audace affermando che Bitcoin Profit potrebbe raggiungere una capitalizzazione di mercato di oltre tremila miliardi di dollari entro il 2025. Elmandjra è apparso nell’episodio della settimana precedente del podcast ‚The Scoop‘, dove ha presentato le sue argomentazioni sul perché sia possibile un tale scenario.

L’ARK ha riconosciuto Bitcoin come potenzialmente dirompente già nel 2015

Elmandjra ha iniziato l’intervista rivelando che ARK ha iniziato a indagare seriamente sugli asset digitali già nel 2015, quando BTC faceva trading a soli 250 dollari circa. Nonostante l’infanzia di Bitcoin, ARK Invest, che punta molto sull’innovazione, ha riconosciuto l’unicità del primo crypto al mondo e il suo potenziale di sconvolgere i sistemi di pagamento tradizionali. La società d’investimento ha pubblicato un documento all’epoca, che illustra il motivo per cui la Bitcoin è così speciale. Ora, ARK Invest ha pubblicato un documento di follow-up, che si rivolge agli investitori istituzionali. Va notato che ARK basa la previsione del limite massimo di mercato di 3.000 miliardi di dollari in gran parte sull’aumento dell’adozione istituzionale. Elmandjra ha detto:

„Oltre a dimensionare questa opportunità per le istituzioni, abbiamo davvero cercato di guardare a ciò che la liquidità e il profilo di volume del Bitcoin sono in relazione ad altre classi di attività e se siamo o meno in un luogo dove il Bitcoin può sostenere il flusso istituzionale che tanto desideriamo. Con questo… anzi, pensiamo che nei prossimi cinque anni il Bitcoin rappresenti un’opportunità multimiliardaria“.

Il rapporto tra Bitcoin, Gold e S&P 500

Alla domanda sulla correlazione tra la Bitcoin e le altre classi di attività, Elmandjra ha chiarito che, nonostante la correlazione apparentemente elevata durante i significativi shock di mercato come la pandemia COVID-19, la Bitcoin si comporta in realtà in modo drasticamente diverso rispetto all’S&P 500 e all’oro, ad esempio. Secondo Elmandjra la correlazione tra la Bitcoin e altri 9 asset che ha esaminato tende a concentrarsi intorno allo zero, se si considera un periodo di tempo più lungo, diciamo di 10 anni:

„Anche la correlazione media [90 giorni a rotazione] [da maggio 2010] con l’S&P 500 è circa 0,03, la correlazione media con l’oro è, come sapete, – 0,004“.

È interessante notare che la società di crittoanalisi di mercato ByteTree è giunta a una conclusione simile nel suo rapporto approfondito per l’ottobre 2020. Mentre il Bitcoin è spesso chiamato oro digitale, i due popolari asset di store-of-value sembrano prosperare in condizioni diverse. Il rapporto scrive:

„Il lato dell’offerta del Bitcoin è stato progettato intorno all’idea dell’oro, come ad esempio: offerta limitata, fungibilità, affidabilità e così via. Questo dovrebbe significare che l’oro e il Bitcoin hanno qualcosa in comune, ma si rivela essere molto meno di quanto si possa pensare. Come già detto, il Bitcoin gode di condizioni monetarie facili, ma in modo diverso dall’oro. Infatti, il 2013 [quando la Federal Reserve ha segnalato che avrebbe aumentato i tassi in futuro] è stato l’anno migliore di sempre per il Bitcoin (5400%) e il peggiore per l’oro (-28%) dal 1981. Quanto possono avere in comune l’oro e il Bitcoin quando mostrano un comportamento diametralmente opposto in risposta a un cambiamento macroeconomico?“.

I volumi di trading Bitcoin superano i volumi di trading di quasi tutti i titoli FANG

Successivamente, l’intervistatore ha notato che i volumi di trading spot di Bitcoin superano i volumi di trading di tutti tranne uno dei titoli FANG, questi sono i titoli di quattro popolari aziende tecnologiche americane, vale a dire Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, e Google (Alphabet). In combinazione con il fatto che un alto fatturato è solitamente considerato un buon indicatore del futuro apprezzamento di un asset, questo rappresenta una buona prospettiva per il Bitcoin. Ciononostante, Elmandjra ha avvertito che dobbiamo essere cauti nel confrontare il Bitcoin con i mercati tradizionali, poiché il profilo di liquidità e di volume del cripto differisce in modo significativo. Inoltre, i volumi spot presentano solo una piccola percentuale del volume totale di trading Bitcoin. Elmandjra ha dichiarato:

„E questo è piuttosto importante, soprattutto quando si parla con un investitore istituzionale, diciamo un fondo da 100 miliardi di dollari che vuole ottenere un’esposizione del 2%. Ma si può semplicemente acquistare sul mercato 2 miliardi di dollari di spot Bitcoin? E la risposta è: certamente no. E questo, in realtà, apre gli occhi a molti… Cominciamo a vedere che forse [Bitcoin] non è così maturo dal punto di vista della liquidità e del volume come molti potrebbero sperare“.

Elmandjra ha aggiunto, tuttavia, che il Bitcoin è ancora un bene giovane e che continua a crescere in modo esponenziale. Con questo tasso di crescita, il profilo di volume e di liquidità del Bitcoin probabilmente migliorerà presto.

Quali sono i principali ostacoli che impediscono una più ampia adozione istituzionale del Bitcoin?

Verso la fine dell’intervista, Elmandjra ha sottolineato alcuni ostacoli che impediscono una più ampia adozione istituzionale del Bitcoin. La questione principale per le istituzioni interessate rimane come ottenere un’esposizione efficiente a BTC. Il modo più semplice per ottenere l’esposizione è semplicemente comprare e tenere il Bitcoin. Mentre questo sembra semplice per i singoli individui, l’autocustodia della crittovaluta rappresenta un’ulteriore responsabilità che molte istituzioni non sono disposte ad assumersi.

Pertanto, di solito acquistano prodotti criptoindicizzati o qualcosa come il Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Tuttavia, questi tipi di investimenti di cripto-valuta sono passivi in quanto non forniscono la capacità di gestire attivamente l’investimento, il che potrebbe essere cruciale in mercati tanto volatili quanto quelli di cripto-valuta. Inoltre, questi prodotti sono associati a commissioni elevate. Per riassumere, Elmandjra ritiene che la mancanza di società di brokeraggio di prim’ordine e di grandi depositari sia un problema importante che sta impedendo una più ampia adozione istituzionale di Bitcoin.

Bitcoin e i mercati emergenti

Oltre al crescente interesse da parte degli investitori istituzionali, Elmandjra ha identificato i mercati emergenti come una delle quattro opportunità cruciali per Bitcoin. L’analisi di ARK ha rivelato un alto picco di interesse relativo per il Bitcoin nei mercati emergenti. Con il fallimento delle valute locali, la gente sta iniziando a cercare alternative come l’oro fisico, il contante estero e ora anche la criptovaluta. Poiché il Bitcoin vive su internet è molto più efficiente da trasportare e questo è uno dei motivi per cui l’analista di crittografia dell’ARK ritiene che il Bitcoin abbia il potenziale per diventare un veicolo di risparmio molto popolare in questi mercati.

Come vengono fatte le stime dei limiti di mercato?

Elmandjra ha dichiarato che se la Bitcoin riesce a cogliere il 5% della base monetaria globale M2, al di fuori delle quattro maggiori valute (USD, JNY, CNY ed EUR), potremmo vedere un aumento della capitalizzazione di mercato di circa 1 trilione di dollari. E se Bitcoin riesce a conquistare il 10% del mercato globale di regolamento, la capitalizzazione di mercato potrebbe vedere un aumento di 7 volte fino a 1,5 trilioni di dollari. Combinando queste due opportunità, potremmo vedere il limite massimo del mercato Bitcoin nell’intorno di 3 trilioni di dollari. Alla domanda su come vengono fatte queste stime della capitalizzazione di mercato Bitcoin, Elmandjra ha chiarito:

„Abbiamo fornito diversi scenari basati su stime conservative vs. più aggressive…. Penso che il vero indizio sia il modo in cui valutiamo l’opportunità in modo più ampio, quando si tratta di questo tipo di tecnologia che si insinua nell’individuo di tutti i giorni“. Si prende, ad esempio, la penetrazione di internet, si prende, la scala globale o l’adozione dei telefoni cellulari e dell’online banking. E direi che si tratta di una stima relativamente prudente, dato che abbiamo visto la crescita delle aziende abilitate a Internet in generale“.

Nell’intervista, Elmandjra ha anche dichiarato che „PayPal, che offre la compravendita di crypto, sarà una grande mossa“. Beh, indovinate un po‘, quella grande mossa è stata annunciata ufficialmente solo ieri.